Process of explanation and representation in a counterintuitive problem of probabilities

Abstract

Starting with the version "Card game" (Tubau and Alonso, 2003) of the counterintuitive problem of probabilities Monty Hall, a version of the problem was designed in which there was a “Help-sentence” and a “Double question” that allow a superficial increase in the proportion of correct responses. The experiments try to confirm to what extent the increase in the percentage of switches in the First illusory question is due to an associative effect. There are a small percentage of participants who seem to take advantage of these helps and yet keep their correct answer until the end of the questionnaire. It is suggested that there is some sort of non linguistic representation in such participants that could be either more associative or more numerical in nature, and some future research to explore this idea further is proposed.


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